How long can a nation maintain a technological edge over the rest of the world? Announcing the...
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How long can a nation maintain a technological edge over the rest of the world?
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How long can a nation maintain a technological edge over the rest of the world?
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
Planned maintenance scheduled April 23, 2019 at 23:30 UTC (7:30pm US/Eastern)New blog post: When Gods FearCrash-landed aliens - political repercussions?Sapient Ant Colony Rivaling Homo Sapiens and Homo Neanderthal?How fast can a society be 'upgraded'?How would a vagrant civilization evolve?Hurdles an alien civilization would encounter evolving next to a giant impenetrable wallHow would the rest of society advance if technology doesn't?Unplanned Colony: what industrial level could be recreated in the short-term?Does this apocalypse and the following events make sense?How can I slow technological advancement?Could a (strong) confederation of countries take over the world?Crash-landed aliens - political repercussions?
$begingroup$
My question was raised by this post.
Aliens crash-land at the Boston Airport (ie, in the United States). [...] The potential benefits of being able to reverse-engineer their tech alone is enough to propel the US to a new level of technology.
This happened in the early 21st century. After some years, the US have extracted enough knowledge from the spaceship and its passengers to create a huge technological gap between them and the rest of the world. Assume (if that makes any sense) that this gap is similar to the difference between WW2 and 2000's techs.
I guess that all this knowledge will leak at some point (intelligence services, private companies, bribes, retro-engineering of latest American devices...). So the question is,
How long before all other (developed) countries get to the same level of technology?
If you have to address the resulting political transformations too much, then this question may be too broad...
technological-development geopolitics
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
My question was raised by this post.
Aliens crash-land at the Boston Airport (ie, in the United States). [...] The potential benefits of being able to reverse-engineer their tech alone is enough to propel the US to a new level of technology.
This happened in the early 21st century. After some years, the US have extracted enough knowledge from the spaceship and its passengers to create a huge technological gap between them and the rest of the world. Assume (if that makes any sense) that this gap is similar to the difference between WW2 and 2000's techs.
I guess that all this knowledge will leak at some point (intelligence services, private companies, bribes, retro-engineering of latest American devices...). So the question is,
How long before all other (developed) countries get to the same level of technology?
If you have to address the resulting political transformations too much, then this question may be too broad...
technological-development geopolitics
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
$endgroup$
– Alex
13 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
My question was raised by this post.
Aliens crash-land at the Boston Airport (ie, in the United States). [...] The potential benefits of being able to reverse-engineer their tech alone is enough to propel the US to a new level of technology.
This happened in the early 21st century. After some years, the US have extracted enough knowledge from the spaceship and its passengers to create a huge technological gap between them and the rest of the world. Assume (if that makes any sense) that this gap is similar to the difference between WW2 and 2000's techs.
I guess that all this knowledge will leak at some point (intelligence services, private companies, bribes, retro-engineering of latest American devices...). So the question is,
How long before all other (developed) countries get to the same level of technology?
If you have to address the resulting political transformations too much, then this question may be too broad...
technological-development geopolitics
$endgroup$
My question was raised by this post.
Aliens crash-land at the Boston Airport (ie, in the United States). [...] The potential benefits of being able to reverse-engineer their tech alone is enough to propel the US to a new level of technology.
This happened in the early 21st century. After some years, the US have extracted enough knowledge from the spaceship and its passengers to create a huge technological gap between them and the rest of the world. Assume (if that makes any sense) that this gap is similar to the difference between WW2 and 2000's techs.
I guess that all this knowledge will leak at some point (intelligence services, private companies, bribes, retro-engineering of latest American devices...). So the question is,
How long before all other (developed) countries get to the same level of technology?
If you have to address the resulting political transformations too much, then this question may be too broad...
technological-development geopolitics
technological-development geopolitics
edited 3 mins ago
Cyn
12.3k12758
12.3k12758
asked 2 hours ago
ArgemioneArgemione
1367
1367
1
$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
$endgroup$
– Alex
13 mins ago
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
$endgroup$
– Alex
13 mins ago
1
1
$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
$endgroup$
– Alex
13 mins ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
$endgroup$
– Alex
13 mins ago
add a comment |
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
I think the best way to look at this is by seeing how long it took China to catch up to the USA's technology. 20 years ago, the average level of technology in China was 50-100 years outdated by Western Standards, now they have pretty comparable technologies in most areas of life; so, if you are beginning your narrative from any time period before 2000, that would be a reasonable time frame.
That said, we live in an age of hacking and surveillance where national secretes are much harder to keep than they once were. It only takes one researcher opening a bad email for someone else to gain access to an entire office building worth of research. I would not be surprised if half a dozen countries had at least some of what we'd discover from the wreck, before we're even ready to go into production with it.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Skipping a bunch of me complaining about the complexities behind this, the answer is something in the frame of "they can keep their edge almost indefinitely if it gives them enough of an economic advantage". Short version if it costs too much to retool for the new technology it won't be adopted if the US is far enough ahead that other nations can't afford it. Look at the gap that developed between the US and USSR after the space race. It wasn't until relatively recently that Russia was able to catch up in the computer sciences through access to cheap components produced by outsourced offshore vendors in sympathetic countries.
This does assume an initial manufacturing monopoly, if they outsource production they'll lose almost immediately.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I don't think there will be any appreciable delay at all.
There are to many variables at play to answer precisely (and I assume the question will be marked as opinion based soon). But my overall line of reasoning goes like this - in this scenario the US doesn't have much head start over other nations, they do not have the infrastructure in place to produce alien technology devices at once. In short, the more secrecy there is around the alien technology, the slower the rate of adoption in the US itself, so the nation gets less benefit from it's new technology. The less secrecy, the faster it spreads.
The best use of this technological superiority, IMO, would be not trying to conceal it, but to patent it - but then you will have it produced in China and used globally the next morning (although US would profit economically the most, I guess).
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
add a comment |
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3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
I think the best way to look at this is by seeing how long it took China to catch up to the USA's technology. 20 years ago, the average level of technology in China was 50-100 years outdated by Western Standards, now they have pretty comparable technologies in most areas of life; so, if you are beginning your narrative from any time period before 2000, that would be a reasonable time frame.
That said, we live in an age of hacking and surveillance where national secretes are much harder to keep than they once were. It only takes one researcher opening a bad email for someone else to gain access to an entire office building worth of research. I would not be surprised if half a dozen countries had at least some of what we'd discover from the wreck, before we're even ready to go into production with it.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I think the best way to look at this is by seeing how long it took China to catch up to the USA's technology. 20 years ago, the average level of technology in China was 50-100 years outdated by Western Standards, now they have pretty comparable technologies in most areas of life; so, if you are beginning your narrative from any time period before 2000, that would be a reasonable time frame.
That said, we live in an age of hacking and surveillance where national secretes are much harder to keep than they once were. It only takes one researcher opening a bad email for someone else to gain access to an entire office building worth of research. I would not be surprised if half a dozen countries had at least some of what we'd discover from the wreck, before we're even ready to go into production with it.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I think the best way to look at this is by seeing how long it took China to catch up to the USA's technology. 20 years ago, the average level of technology in China was 50-100 years outdated by Western Standards, now they have pretty comparable technologies in most areas of life; so, if you are beginning your narrative from any time period before 2000, that would be a reasonable time frame.
That said, we live in an age of hacking and surveillance where national secretes are much harder to keep than they once were. It only takes one researcher opening a bad email for someone else to gain access to an entire office building worth of research. I would not be surprised if half a dozen countries had at least some of what we'd discover from the wreck, before we're even ready to go into production with it.
$endgroup$
I think the best way to look at this is by seeing how long it took China to catch up to the USA's technology. 20 years ago, the average level of technology in China was 50-100 years outdated by Western Standards, now they have pretty comparable technologies in most areas of life; so, if you are beginning your narrative from any time period before 2000, that would be a reasonable time frame.
That said, we live in an age of hacking and surveillance where national secretes are much harder to keep than they once were. It only takes one researcher opening a bad email for someone else to gain access to an entire office building worth of research. I would not be surprised if half a dozen countries had at least some of what we'd discover from the wreck, before we're even ready to go into production with it.
answered 1 hour ago
NosajimikiNosajimiki
2,872120
2,872120
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Skipping a bunch of me complaining about the complexities behind this, the answer is something in the frame of "they can keep their edge almost indefinitely if it gives them enough of an economic advantage". Short version if it costs too much to retool for the new technology it won't be adopted if the US is far enough ahead that other nations can't afford it. Look at the gap that developed between the US and USSR after the space race. It wasn't until relatively recently that Russia was able to catch up in the computer sciences through access to cheap components produced by outsourced offshore vendors in sympathetic countries.
This does assume an initial manufacturing monopoly, if they outsource production they'll lose almost immediately.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Skipping a bunch of me complaining about the complexities behind this, the answer is something in the frame of "they can keep their edge almost indefinitely if it gives them enough of an economic advantage". Short version if it costs too much to retool for the new technology it won't be adopted if the US is far enough ahead that other nations can't afford it. Look at the gap that developed between the US and USSR after the space race. It wasn't until relatively recently that Russia was able to catch up in the computer sciences through access to cheap components produced by outsourced offshore vendors in sympathetic countries.
This does assume an initial manufacturing monopoly, if they outsource production they'll lose almost immediately.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Skipping a bunch of me complaining about the complexities behind this, the answer is something in the frame of "they can keep their edge almost indefinitely if it gives them enough of an economic advantage". Short version if it costs too much to retool for the new technology it won't be adopted if the US is far enough ahead that other nations can't afford it. Look at the gap that developed between the US and USSR after the space race. It wasn't until relatively recently that Russia was able to catch up in the computer sciences through access to cheap components produced by outsourced offshore vendors in sympathetic countries.
This does assume an initial manufacturing monopoly, if they outsource production they'll lose almost immediately.
$endgroup$
Skipping a bunch of me complaining about the complexities behind this, the answer is something in the frame of "they can keep their edge almost indefinitely if it gives them enough of an economic advantage". Short version if it costs too much to retool for the new technology it won't be adopted if the US is far enough ahead that other nations can't afford it. Look at the gap that developed between the US and USSR after the space race. It wasn't until relatively recently that Russia was able to catch up in the computer sciences through access to cheap components produced by outsourced offshore vendors in sympathetic countries.
This does assume an initial manufacturing monopoly, if they outsource production they'll lose almost immediately.
edited 58 mins ago
answered 1 hour ago
AshAsh
26.7k466150
26.7k466150
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
1
1
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
Russia was delayed as you say because their nation fell into anarchy and economic ruin, but this question is about other developed countries. In this same time frame, other economically healthy countries such as England, Japan, etc. didn't particularly fall behind.
$endgroup$
– Nosajimiki
58 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
$begingroup$
@Nosajimiki No because they benefited from in the case of Britain and the European nations information sharing agreements and in the case of Japan early production outsourcing.
$endgroup$
– Ash
54 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I don't think there will be any appreciable delay at all.
There are to many variables at play to answer precisely (and I assume the question will be marked as opinion based soon). But my overall line of reasoning goes like this - in this scenario the US doesn't have much head start over other nations, they do not have the infrastructure in place to produce alien technology devices at once. In short, the more secrecy there is around the alien technology, the slower the rate of adoption in the US itself, so the nation gets less benefit from it's new technology. The less secrecy, the faster it spreads.
The best use of this technological superiority, IMO, would be not trying to conceal it, but to patent it - but then you will have it produced in China and used globally the next morning (although US would profit economically the most, I guess).
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I don't think there will be any appreciable delay at all.
There are to many variables at play to answer precisely (and I assume the question will be marked as opinion based soon). But my overall line of reasoning goes like this - in this scenario the US doesn't have much head start over other nations, they do not have the infrastructure in place to produce alien technology devices at once. In short, the more secrecy there is around the alien technology, the slower the rate of adoption in the US itself, so the nation gets less benefit from it's new technology. The less secrecy, the faster it spreads.
The best use of this technological superiority, IMO, would be not trying to conceal it, but to patent it - but then you will have it produced in China and used globally the next morning (although US would profit economically the most, I guess).
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I don't think there will be any appreciable delay at all.
There are to many variables at play to answer precisely (and I assume the question will be marked as opinion based soon). But my overall line of reasoning goes like this - in this scenario the US doesn't have much head start over other nations, they do not have the infrastructure in place to produce alien technology devices at once. In short, the more secrecy there is around the alien technology, the slower the rate of adoption in the US itself, so the nation gets less benefit from it's new technology. The less secrecy, the faster it spreads.
The best use of this technological superiority, IMO, would be not trying to conceal it, but to patent it - but then you will have it produced in China and used globally the next morning (although US would profit economically the most, I guess).
$endgroup$
I don't think there will be any appreciable delay at all.
There are to many variables at play to answer precisely (and I assume the question will be marked as opinion based soon). But my overall line of reasoning goes like this - in this scenario the US doesn't have much head start over other nations, they do not have the infrastructure in place to produce alien technology devices at once. In short, the more secrecy there is around the alien technology, the slower the rate of adoption in the US itself, so the nation gets less benefit from it's new technology. The less secrecy, the faster it spreads.
The best use of this technological superiority, IMO, would be not trying to conceal it, but to patent it - but then you will have it produced in China and used globally the next morning (although US would profit economically the most, I guess).
answered 1 hour ago
CumehtarCumehtar
1644
1644
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
$begingroup$
If you compare the Alien tech to that of nuclear warheads in the cold war, there would be a substantial delay. The US and Russia at the time were the only countries with the resources to develop and experiment with those weapons and the world watched as we almost killed each other. Today more countries have nuclear weapons, but majority still have none.
$endgroup$
– Alex
10 mins ago
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
Are those technologies going to be fully classified and available only to the military, or available to the general public?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think a big issue with the question is the state of the world when this happens. From what I understand the US already has Military Tech that far surpasses what anyone else has on the planet, and we are pretty good at keeping all that under wraps. Maybe the US would end up doing what we have done in the past (give military technology to a developing country who will fight our enemies for us), and then end up with those weapons pointed towards us.
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– Alex
13 mins ago